WOO vs Lucas Score

[SDLM Rankings]

• For the last couple of years I have wanted to create way to really determine which series is better or tougher. I have restarted the American Dirt Late Model Rankings therefore I will have the data to it this year.
• As of 6 MAR 18 there have been 21 feature races where at least one competitor from each tour has faced off. In 13 of those races the Lucas drivers have had a better overall performance. WOO drivers have performed better in 8 of those races. The system is set up to account for drivers dropping off or swapping tours.
• Lucas drivers have accumulated 7,284.87 points to date and WOO drivers have collected 4,932.48 points to date. The points are accumulated in every race that a tour driver competes in, it does not matter if a driver from the opposing tour is racing. So, there are two measurements “head to head” and all the “drivers points” throughout the year.

[fryefan]

Lucas Oil drivers tend to run more WoO shows when they have off days, than the other way around. At least in years past.

[Josh Bayko]

Lucas Oil drivers tend to run more WoO shows when they have off days, than the other way around. At least in years past.

This true. The only WoO team that regularly runs Lucas shows when the WoO is off is the Rocket house car.

[SDLM Rankings]

• I am not sure which series drivers race in other series races the most.
• Anytime at least one series driver from Lucas and WOO make the feature event of any race, no matter what series then it counts towards the Head to Head match up score.
• Anytime a series driver races in any “special” feature race then that driver performance goes towards the overall points total for the series.
• This past weekend Timothy Culp raced the Louisiana Late Model Racing Series at Chatham Speedway, he finished 18th - this resulted in him earning 0.46 points towards the WOO overall point total, but he did not race against any Lucas competitors, so this did not count in the Head to Head match up. He gained very little points due the race having a low Race Competition Rating to date.
• This past weekend Dennis Erb Jr. raced in the Toilet Bowl Races, he performed solidly and earned a total of 30.37 points for the overall Lucas score. However, he did not get earn a Head to Head win because he was the only Lucas Oil competitor.
• This past weekend at the SAS March Madness event at Cherokee there were 3 Lucas drivers and 2 WOO drivers in the feature. The Lucas drivers outperformed the WOO drivers 74.66 to 33.18. In this race the Lucas will get a Head to Head win and both series will collect the points.
• The SAS March Madness event at Cherokee is ranked 22 out 41 in the Race Competition Category. As the season unfolds this event’s RCR score will change based on how the driver’s that raced in the March Madness race perform throughout the year.
• Scott Bloomquist raced in the March Madness race. I currently have him listed as a Lucas driver. If ends up with the WOO or as independent this will affect the Head to Head and the overall scores for each series. So, a Head to Head win today might end up being Head to Head loss down the road.

[Zonks32x]

As a math teacher and AP Statistics instructor, I'd simply like to point out that what you have outlined in the post above in regards to the scoring system could fill the entire unit on sampling bias, skewed data, and data collection errors.

Not to mention an infinite number of variables that are unaccounted for including race length, weather conditions, tire rules, track size, qualifying format, track conditions, type of clay, etc.

I applaud your efforts, but any ranking list (sample) that can't properly account for all the participants within the desired population for every sample collected contains a sampling bias.

In non-math terms...the rankings are 100% subjective, making any conclusions drawn from them subjective as well.

None the less...I look forward to seeing the updated list throughout the season. (Thumbs up to both the effort and passion behind it)

[SDLM Rankings]

As a math teacher and AP Statistics instructor, I'd simply like to point out that what you have outlined in the post above in regards to the scoring system could fill the entire unit on sampling bias, skewed data, and data collection errors.Not to mention an infinite number of variables that are unaccounted for including race length, weather conditions, tire rules, track size, qualifying format, track conditions, type of clay, etc.I applaud your efforts, but any ranking list (sample) that can't properly account for all the participants within the desired population for every sample collected contains a sampling bias.In non-math terms...the rankings are 100% subjective, making any conclusions drawn from them subjective as well.None the less...I look forward to seeing the updated list throughout the season. (Thumbs up to both the effort and passion behind it)

• I am not sure why you are motivated to discredit my work. If you truly believe the methods I am using are flawed then you should ask questions. Instead you decided to make unfounded accusations of my ability to perform calculations necessary to quantify the performance of a large subset of American Dirt Late Model drivers. If you want to provide some real feedback, I will share the math behind it all with you. I have ideas that will make the system better also. In my professional life I am responsible for many different data models, I am always looking for ways refine and improve them. ADLMR is not any different, however it is a hobby so it does not get the scrutiny as models that rely of fractional improvements to create multi-million dollar gains.
• Data analysis is what I do for a living. The ADLMR is something I am doing for fun, and it allows me to use my skill set to be apart the DLM world. I believe in the system, it has proven itself in the past as being great measure of DLM driver performance.
• The variables you mention above are important to DLM drivers and teams. I use the y-dependent variable of all every imaginable x-independent variable. The y-variable I am referring to is the only one that matters in the end… finish position in the feature.

[Highside Hustler25]

..........Oh my

[mskdorf]

I enjoy looking at these even if I do disagree on some of the positions. Keep doing what you are doing. It seems you have a lot of variables that go into this and I almost always welcome a professional's opinion.

[ThebigE]

..........Oh my

Lions and Tiger and Bears Oh My............ Wow, this is getting technical.

[Jking24]

I think this is very cool. My question is their any weighting towards a win.i ask because your system gave lucas the head to head win when a woo competitor actually won the race. I assume this result was because more lucas drivers finished closer to the front and its a straight point to point average.not bashing just curios because the numbers don't lie but my gut as a racer says woo won this one lol

[SDLM Rankings]

I think this is very cool. My question is their any weighting towards a win.i ask because your system gave lucas the head to head win when a woo competitor actually won the race. I assume this result was because more lucas drivers finished closer to the front and its a straight point to point average.not bashing just curios because the numbers don't lie but my gut as a racer says woo won this one lol

• Bashing is okay if you have substantive arguments to back up your position. I am guilty of bash without substance occasionally, but I have learned over there years that it fool’s errand to do such a thing. That being said, this is the “Gossip” section of a forum.
• In the March Madness race Chris Ferguson spun late in the race while running in the top three. If he would have held on to finish 2nd then WOO would have come out on top with a score of roughly Lucas 60.17 and WOO 142.62. I call it rough calculation because the system is iterative and I don’t have the system set up where I can quickly account for every possible scenario. However, if in the future one of the five national touring guys in the March Madness feature drops of tour or changes tours I will be able to quickly calculate the scoring effect on past races and this due to the model being iterative.

[Zonks32x]

SDLM,

My intent was not to dis-credit your work...about something that is "fun." Rankings spawn discussions and yes at times arguments, but the list, creation of it, and discussion of it are "fun" to talk about and dive into.

I tried to make that clear when I said that I applaud both your efforts and passion and I look forward to the rankings.

But whether it's dirt late models, college football, basketball, etc., the fact remains that rankings are subjective and contain sampling bias. (There's simply too many variables that are left unaccounted for).

But SO WHAT!?!? You enjoy doing the rankings, and You, I and everyone else enjoy reading/discussing them.

I publicly apologize to you if you believe I insulted you. That was not my intent.

Keep grinding those numbers. Doesn't matter what you or I think, if that list doesn't have Bloomer, JD, and Pierce at #1, we're gonna hear about it.

[chupp n bloomer fan]

SDLM,

My intent was not to dis-credit your work...about something that is "fun." Rankings spawn discussions and yes at times arguments, but the list, creation of it, and discussion of it are "fun" to talk about and dive into.

I tried to make that clear when I said that I applaud both your efforts and passion and I look forward to the rankings.

But whether it's dirt late models, college football, basketball, etc., the fact remains that rankings are subjective and contain sampling bias. (There's simply too many variables that are left unaccounted for).

But SO WHAT!?!? You enjoy doing the rankings, and You, I and everyone else enjoy reading/discussing them.

I publicly apologize to you if you believe I insulted you. That was not my intent.

Keep grinding those numbers. Doesn't matter what you or I think, if that list doesn't have Bloomer, JD, and Pierce at #1, we're gonna hear about it.

You made good posts man as always, I knew with what you put at the end your intentions in the first one weren’t crappy. Now we know you’re a math wiz.

I thank him for his rankings, like ya said, we still like them, and you for your good posts.

[MasterSbilt_Racer]

As a math teacher and AP Statistics instructor, I'd simply like to point out that what you have outlined in the post above in regards to the scoring system could fill the entire unit on sampling bias, skewed data, and data collection errors.

Not to mention an infinite number of variables that are unaccounted for including race length, weather conditions, tire rules, track size, qualifying format, track conditions, type of clay, etc.

I applaud your efforts, but any ranking list (sample) that can't properly account for all the participants within the desired population for every sample collected contains a sampling bias.

In non-math terms...the rankings are 100% subjective, making any conclusions drawn from them subjective as well.

None the less...I look forward to seeing the updated list throughout the season. (Thumbs up to both the effort and passion behind it)

A generic math model ignores these because it takes all those variables in aggregate. The same as the RPI in stick and ball sports. In those you have a generic factor for home field.

I guess a track condition specific model could be made. But my tacky track may be your average track.

[cgrace]

thanks much! looking forward to your stats

[AHydro23]

Hey Zonks32x, I'm an AP Stats teacher too. I thought I was the only AP Stats teacher into dirt racing. LOL! SDLM, just for fun I have developed a model for (only) Super LMs similar to college basketball RPI. Every race gives you a W-L record. If you finish 10th out of a 30 car field, that's 20 wins & 9 losses. National series events give a weighted increase to wins & less to losses (like a road game in college bball). Regional series give an even weight to Ws & Ls (like a neutral court game). And local races give a reduced weight to wins & increased weight to losses (like a home game). Part of a drivers rating is his opponents rating. And part is his opponents' opponents' rating. Like in college bball they use 25% team, 50% opponents, 25% opponents-opponents. I'm still playing around with these percentages & the weights of wins & losses. College bball counts a road win as 1.4 wins & home win as 0.6 wins. Losses are just the opposite.And how do you quote another poster on the God forsaken website? Or separate your own post into paragraphs? I'm sure when I hit post, it's gonna all be one paragraph.

[AHydro23]

Or separate your own post into paragraphs? I'm sure when I hit post, it's gonna all be one paragraph.Yup

[chupp n bloomer fan]

Or separate your own post into paragraphs? I'm sure when I hit post, it's gonna all be one paragraph.Yup

In the general settings, near the bottom, is miscellaneous settings. You wanna use basic editor, just check that box, should clear it up.

[SDLM Rankings]

AHydro23Your approach has some similarities to mine. I’d be willing to compare our approaches. I always want to improve the things I’m working. If you are interested, shoot me a PM.

[Illtsate32]

Hey Zonks32x, I'm an AP Stats teacher too. I thought I was the only AP Stats teacher into dirt racing. LOL! SDLM, just for fun I have developed a model for (only) Super LMs similar to college basketball RPI. Every race gives you a W-L record. If you finish 10th out of a 30 car field, that's 20 wins & 9 losses. National series events give a weighted increase to wins & less to losses (like a road game in college bball). Regional series give an even weight to Ws & Ls (like a neutral court game). And local races give a reduced weight to wins & increased weight to losses (like a home game). Part of a drivers rating is his opponents rating. And part is his opponents' opponents' rating. Like in college bball they use 25% team, 50% opponents, 25% opponents-opponents. I'm still playing around with these percentages & the weights of wins & losses. College bball counts a road win as 1.4 wins & home win as 0.6 wins. Losses are just the opposite.And how do you quote another poster on the God forsaken website? Or separate your own post into paragraphs? I'm sure when I hit post, it's gonna all be one paragraph.

Quality road wins lol when a driver wins a race out of his home state...