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  1. #1
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    Default Sign of an Economic Downturn?

    For the great economic minds around here, curious if any of y'all see this as a potential warning sign that an economic contraction (recession) is nearing:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/truc...stanley-2019-7

    https://www.businessinsider.com/cela...randed-2019-12

    Trucking company bankruptcies have more than tripled in the first half of this year, compared to the same period over the prior year.
    Last edited by anthonycacace; 12-11-2019 at 08:19 AM. Reason: b/c I can

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    Part of the Celadon deal is an accounting scandal dating back a few years.

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    Because the largest one in the nation just caught their dem leadership stealing from them and they are shuttering the doors because of it.

    That makes up over 3/4ths of that number you say tripled........but who's counting?
    Where is the move over flag when you need it?????

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    Quote Originally Posted by STRONGERTHANDIRT View Post
    Part of the Celadon deal is an accounting scandal dating back a few years.
    hand in the cookie jar economics.........just like what's getting ready to be talked about very soon around the beltway.
    Where is the move over flag when you need it?????

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    Quote Originally Posted by Barbecueboy View Post
    Because the largest one in the nation just caught their dem leadership stealing from them and they are shuttering the doors because of it.
    Largest [one] trucking company in the nation you mean? Or the largest truckload company in history to go bankrupt?

    And what does this have to do with the Dems? Oh, you meant DIM! Yep, Celadon management was dim!

    That makes up over 3/4ths of that number you say tripled........but who's counting?
    Um, no. Apparently you didn't read ... oh never mind.

    See this passage from the Celadon article:

    "2019 has been a challenging year for truck drivers and their employers. About 640 trucking companies went bankrupt in the first half of the year, according to industry data from Broughton Capital LLC. That's more than triple the roughly 175 bankruptcies from the same period last year."

    So 640/175 = 3.657 or greater than 3; last I checked, 3 is the number that represents 'triple.'
    Last edited by anthonycacace; 12-11-2019 at 10:03 AM. Reason: b/c I can

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    Quote Originally Posted by STRONGERTHANDIRT View Post
    Part of the Celadon deal is an accounting scandal dating back a few years.
    .

    True, but what about the other 639 companies? They all have accounting scandals that will come to light too?

    More likely it's because of this:

    "Freight volumes have declined for 11 straight months. Manufacturing, which tracks the trucking industry, has contracted for four straight months."

    See also this article on the manufacturing slowdown:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...ism-2019-12-02
    Last edited by anthonycacace; 12-11-2019 at 10:02 AM. Reason: b/c I can

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    Quote Originally Posted by anthonycacace View Post
    Largest [one] trucking company in the nation you mean? Or the largest truckload company in history to go bankrupt?

    And what does this have to do with the Dems? Oh, you meant DIM! Yep, Celadon management was dim!



    Um, no. Apparently you didn't read ... oh never mind.

    See this passage from the Celadon article:

    "2019 has been a challenging year for truck drivers and their employers. About 640 trucking companies went bankrupt in the first half of the year, according to industry data from Broughton Capital LLC. That's more than triple the roughly 175 bankruptcies from the same period last year."

    So 640/175 = 3.657 or greater than 3; last I checked, 3 is the number that represents 'triple.'
    No, meant Dem.....just like it was written.....follow that money trail, you'll get it.
    Where is the move over flag when you need it?????

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    Quote Originally Posted by Barbecueboy View Post
    No, meant Dem.....just like it was written.....follow that money trail, you'll get it.
    K, but the ex-COO of Celadon that is charged in the accounting fraud, William Eric Meek -

    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/forme...aud-bank-fraud

    grew up in Rush County, IN -

    https://www.rushvillerepublican.com/...ff59c73de.html

    which is a county that went overwhelmingly for Dirty Don -

    Rush County 100% Reporting
    R - D. Trump 73.4% 5,292
    D - H. Clinton 21.1% 1,525
    L - G. Johnson 5.5% 397


    in a State where he won too -

    Overall 2016 Indiana Presidential Election Results 100% Reporting

    R - Winner D. Trump 57.2% 1,556,220
    D - H. Clinton 37.9% 1,031,953
    L - G. Johnson 4.9% 133,856


    So, this is where the trail lead me ... to the Republicans.

    Wanna try and tie Celadon to the Democrats, feel free to support such because currently, I see your trail heading off the cliff without a map.
    Last edited by anthonycacace; 12-11-2019 at 11:32 AM. Reason: b/c I can

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    Quote Originally Posted by anthonycacace View Post
    K, but the ex-COO of Celadon that is charged in the accounting fraud, William Eric Meek -

    https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/forme...aud-bank-fraud

    grew up in Rush County, IN -

    https://www.rushvillerepublican.com/...ff59c73de.html

    which is a county that went overwhelmingly for Dirty Don -

    Rush County 100% Reporting
    R - D. Trump 73.4% 5,292
    D - H. Clinton 21.1% 1,525
    L - G. Johnson 5.5% 397


    in a State where he won too -

    Overall 2016 Indiana Presidential Election Results 100% Reporting

    R - Winner D. Trump 57.2% 1,556,220
    D - H. Clinton 37.9% 1,031,953
    L - G. Johnson 4.9% 133,856


    So, this is where the trail lead me ... to the Republicans.

    Wanna try and tie Celadon to the Democrats, feel free to support such because currently, I see your trail heading off the cliff without a map.
    And it will end up at the same crash site as the impeachment proceedings......now do you see my point?
    Like you, and many of your dem friends I can say whatever I want and hope there isn't anyone out there that can find the info to challenge it.......SOUND FAMILIAR?

    Cool how you only implicated the coo from celadon to fit your narrative........might want to get that shovel out and dig just a weeeee bit deeper below the surface.

    You see me driving it off a cliff you say???? You also saw Russian collusion....how did that one work out? .......just pointing it out.
    Where is the move over flag when you need it?????

  10. #10
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    In recent years, the trucking industry has experienced an increased growth rate, and according to forecasts from the American Trucking Associations (ATA), that progress will continue in 2019. The ATA also forecasts that transport needs will continue to grow over the course of the next eight years.

    With the economy on a healthy upswing, the need for transportation of goods is at an all-time high because with this, factories are producing more, the construction industry is building more houses faster and people are spending more money. All of this creates more freight demand.

    The growth of the trucking industry has been consistent for the past few years, with a 5.4% increase in 2018. Then, in 2017, more than 75% of the freight revenue generated in the United States was done through the trucking industry, which totaled over seven hundred billion dollars; a 3.5% increase from 2016. It has been a great time for the industry as a whole and experts in the industry forecast its continuation well into the New Year.

    Economic Growth/Boom Doesn’t Happen Without Truckers
    In regard to economic growth this is great news and with ecommerce businesses continually opening, the manufacturing industry is booming. However, with the trucking industry being the primary source for delivery of goods, the truck driver shortage poses the risk for other issues. The ATA President Chris Spear expressed, “the trucking industry is literally the driving force behind our great economy.” In 2018, the trucking industry enjoyed more than a four percent growth margin. And while the projections for growth in 2019 are expected to be somewhere between 2 and 3 percent, it is less. What’s causing the anticipated decrease? The possible changes in trade agreements, rate increases and the ongoing truck driver shortage.


    Thanksgiving on the Road: Thank a Trucker

    trucker-shortage-2019-trucking-industry-growth-suppose-u-drive

    Truck Driver Shortage
    The driver shortage has been an issue for the past several years and is expected to worsen as more drivers reach retirement age. Currently, the trucking industry employs approximately 7.7 million people and almost half of those employees are drivers. Speculation is that by the year 2026, the trucking industry will lack at least 175,000 truck drivers.

    This equates to delays in transportation of goods, which is already causing product prices to increase, as well as shipping and freight rates. Retailers and manufacturers are feeling the pressure as well. Truck drivers make conducting business possible on several levels, including keeping consumers happy with fully stocked shelves and timely deliveries.

    While the driver shortage is hindering transport, there are other areas within the trucking industry that could benefit from some changes. These changes would help increase truck driver efficiency and productivity.

    Reduce miles driven with empty trailers: It is estimated that empty trailers are transported for almost 65 billion miles annually. Oftentimes drivers are not notified in advanced or shipment pickups and deliveries are not strategically planned out. Another instance, especially for smaller businesses, is that drivers commute long distances for a shipment or hold out for better paying options.
    Shipping docks delay drivers: More than 60% of drivers state that wait time at shipping docks is typically three or more hours. However, the industry guidelines instruct drivers to be prepared to wait no more than two hours. This is time that truck drivers are not paid but even worse, it cuts into the allotted number of hours they are allowed to drive on a daily basis.
    Coordination of broker shipments not time efficient: Freight brokers frequently arrange shipment pickups with the truck drivers. However, this requires that the broker first wins the load in negotiations and then the process of locating a driver begins. After that rates and pickup times have to be finalized. Overall the process can take up to three hours per shipment, and it is estimated that the cost of brokers accounts for at least 15% of current freight rates.
    Streamlining the processes of shipment coordination and execution will save time and money for the industry. However, finding and keeping truck drivers is a major priority, which seems to be improving.

    pay-increase-2019-trucking-industry-growth-suppose-u-drive
    Trucking Pay to Increase in 2019
    In an effort to retain current truck drivers and attract new drivers, carriers have increased wages, which apparently made a difference. During the last half of 2018, the churn rate decreased as more drivers made the decision to stay with their current carriers.

    In addition to pay increases for existing drivers, new drivers are enticed by attractive salaries and hefty sign-on bonuses. Even so, the need for new drivers is critical. Job recruiters are working hard, ramping up their efforts to hire on additional drivers for the job vacancies. They are taking the initiative to market to new demographics including military and females, in order to fill the gap. Also, fleet carriers are pressuring insurance companies to lower their rates for new drivers, and lobbyists are pushing to have the driving age for commercial vehicles lowered to 18.

    More Trucking Industry Changes
    As with anything, change comes with pros and cons and the accelerated growth in the trucking industry is no different. From the economy boost and the trucker shortage to the shipping and freight rate increases and the revenue growth, overall it appears that the pros outweigh the cons for 2019.

    When you take into account all of the variables, between driver shortages, economic growth, and regulatory HOS rules, the higher fees were caused by limitations. And, even though freight rates started to climb in 2018 and continue to do so somewhat, experts in the industry anticipate the slowing of them within the year. Why? Truck orders have been on the rise for several months. The summation of ATA chief economist, Bob Costello is that fleets plan to hire their own drivers versus contracting out. Another indicator is due to the increase of delivery needs which is affecting the trucking companies.

    Trucking companies routinely measure the percentage of time their trucks are being used for hauls. Many are experiencing a 99% utilization rate, meaning that in order to keep up with delivery demands, practically every truck is being used consistently.

    economic-market-2019-trucking-industry-growth-suppose-u-drive
    Market Increases Influence Trucking
    Along with the delivery demands of businesses, brick and mortar and ecommerce alike, there has been a surge in other areas as well. Both the construction and housing markets are causing an escalation of deliveries largely due to rebuilding after the California fires and east coast hurricanes. Markets everywhere are benefitting.

    More Consumer Purchases = More Work for Truckers
    Let’s not forget about the consumers who are also buying more often. The convenience of online shopping makes it easy to purchase more items without the hassle of picking them up. Again, those deliveries are made possible through the trucking industry; a major player in the status of the economy. The trucking industry is off to a good start for continued growth in 2019 and beyond.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barbecueboy View Post
    And it will end up at the same crash site as the impeachment proceedings......now do you see my point?
    Like you, and many of your dem friends I can say whatever I want and hope there isn't anyone out there that can find the info to challenge it.......SOUND FAMILIAR?

    Cool how you only implicated the coo from celadon to fit your narrative........might want to get that shovel out and dig just a weeeee bit deeper below the surface.
    Oh boy, you're back to marketing mantra of, "I don't have any case, fact, or leg to stand on, so let's trash the messenger not the message." Always love this debate method opposed to actually showing how one forms their opinion.

    You decided to start the 'connection' game. I simply showed how this likely didn't lead to the Dems, but rather how it points more likely to the Repubs.

    You see me driving it off a cliff you say???? You also saw Russian collusion....how did that one work out? .......just pointing it out.
    Don't recall I ever noted Dirty Don colluded. It's more likely I would've said something along the line that he accepted the assistance. That he even asked for, "Russia if you're listening, I hope your able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing," D. Trump 07/27/2016 ... just pointing that out.




    Now back to the topic at hand, any of the arm chair economists out there concerned that manufacturing indices are down and that truck company bankruptcies are up?
    Last edited by anthonycacace; 12-11-2019 at 03:49 PM. Reason: b/c I can

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    Good to see you back Clayton! PS, didn't quote the message due to length.

    Trucking is definitely cyclical and yes, it has periods of driver shortages. But from use of a quick google search, most of your data is from Jan 2019. Stuff's happened since then eh?

    Many are seeing the more recent trend as a broader indication of a near term downturn, opposed to the normal industry churn. Have something more up to date that shows otherwise?
    Last edited by anthonycacace; 12-11-2019 at 04:01 PM. Reason: b/c I can

  13. #13
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    If you can't tell that he was joking about Hillary's missing e-mails, then anything you say has no credibility. Come on man!

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    Quote Originally Posted by anthonycacace View Post
    Oh boy, you're back to marketing mantra of, "I don't have any case, fact, or leg to stand on, so let's trash the messenger not the message." Always love this debate method opposed to actually showing how one forms their opinion.

    You decided to start the 'connection' game. I simply showed how this likely didn't lead to the Dems, but rather how it points more likely to the Repubs.

    Don't recall I ever noted Dirty Don colluded. It's more likely I would've said something along the line that he accepted the assistance. That he even asked for, "Russia if you're listening, I hope your able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing," D. Trump 07/27/2016 ... just pointing that out.




    Now back to the topic at hand, any of the arm chair economists out there concerned that manufacturing indices are down and that truck company bankruptcies are up?
    You simply showed it " likely" didn't lead to the dems? You showed nothing if the sort....

    Other than the obvious at Celadon did you happen to notice any of the trucking firms that actually got larger ....put on more drivers....added to their fleet....increased profits etc.

    I know it may be hard for you to answer honestly, but I'll ask the question anyway.....taking the big guy out of the equation that just folded because we all know what happened there, do you think any of these tripled amount of bankruptcies have anything to do with the bigger more efficient companies that I mentioned are just better at getting it done and the smaller more regional mom and pop organizations just can't compete anymore?
    Another stat you failed to mention ( and I'm sure you know this from your research)......160 something went bankrupt.....how many new trucking companies started up???

    You can make the numbers sound like and be whatever you want them to be when you're the only one with the pen........you're just mad bro and it shows.

    And btw, not trashing the messenger......just smashing his story into bits and pieces so he can put it all back together again , and this time with all the parts.

    You won't like the number you're looking for on that new companies opening or expanding versus the ones that are closed down for various reasons......you've been warned.
    Reach for the salve before you go searching.....yer gonna need it.
    Where is the move over flag when you need it?????

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    Quote Originally Posted by anthonycacace View Post
    Good to see you back Clayton! PS, didn't quote the message due to length.

    Trucking is definitely cyclical and yes, it has periods of driver shortages. But from use of a quick google search, most of your data is from Jan 2019. Stuff's happened since then eh?

    Many are seeing the more recent trend as a broader indication of a near term downturn, opposed to the normal industry churn. Have something more up to date that shows otherwise?
    I have something more up to date......you're not talking to Clayton dummy.....you've been duped......just like what your political affiliation does to you.....everything isn't as it appears.

    But, being blinded by hate and disappointment I could easily see where you would fall for it.
    Where is the move over flag when you need it?????

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by anthonycacace View Post
    good to see you back clayton! Ps, didn't quote the message due to length.

    Trucking is definitely cyclical and yes, it has periods of driver shortages. But from use of a quick google search, most of your data is from jan 2019. Stuff's happened since then eh?

    Many are seeing the more recent trend as a broader indication of a near term downturn, opposed to the normal industry churn. Have something more up to date that shows otherwise?
    USMCA!!!! Maga!!!! Kag!!!!!

    AC Come join the Trump Train...
    Last edited by Clayton_Wetters; 12-11-2019 at 04:46 PM.

  17. #17
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    True story on how I know your post is bs!

    I live in a large southern metropolis. Every major player in the trucking industry has a hub here.

    Several years ago, my cousin was a union driver for one of the larger ones. He got severely injured on the job and of course they didn't want to pay. He had over 20 years with them and no claims or accidents. He ended up suing and won a high 6 figure settlement!

    Because the market is so strong, the company has contacted him and offered him another job!

    Trucking companies in my area are desperate for more drivers!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZERO25 View Post
    True story on how I know your post is bs!

    I live in a large southern metropolis. Every major player in the trucking industry has a hub here.

    Several years ago, my cousin was a union driver for one of the larger ones. He got severely injured on the job and of course they didn't want to pay. He had over 20 years with them and no claims or accidents. He ended up suing and won a high 6 figure settlement!

    Because the market is so strong, the company has contacted him and offered him another job!

    Trucking companies in my area are desperate for more drivers!
    True story on how I know he is writing bs and manipulating a story to fit his narrative.....

    He touches his keyboard.......

    That is all.

    He will go missing for a while now that his original story has been debunked......it's what they do.
    Where is the move over flag when you need it?????

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    Quote Originally Posted by Barbecueboy View Post
    True story on how I know he is writing bs and manipulating a story to fit his narrative.....

    He touches his keyboard.......

    That is all.

    He will go missing for a while now that his original story has been debunked......it's what they do.
    You mean like Russia, collusion, quid pro quo, etc etc etc? lol

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by anthonycacace View Post
    For the great economic minds around here, curious if any of y'all see this as a potential warning sign that an economic contraction (recession) is nearing:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/truc...stanley-2019-7

    https://www.businessinsider.com/cela...randed-2019-12

    Trucking company bankruptcies have more than tripled in the first half of this year, compared to the same period over the prior year.
    I bet you and your anti American communist scumbag buddies would like nothing better for our country !!!!

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