Most of us aren't Doctors.....

[jr29]

Absolutely not true. Considering all of the silent carriers with no symptoms it looks like the mortality rate will be less than the flu. The mortality rate in the elderly and those with underlying conditions will be higher, which is why those people will have to be careful. Overall though, it is less deadly than the flu when it comes to the overall number of infected that die.

It will not be less than the flu. You are 100% out of your mind.
It my not end up being ten times more deadly, but it is going to be several times more.

Edited....In fairness the numbers have been updated and it is around 3.5% worldwide now. I hadn't looked into it since last week.

[MasterSbilt_Racer]

Because H1N1 wasn't as contagious so not as many people contracted it. More people are contracting the China virus at a faster rate. 85% of the people who contract the virus have no or mild symptoms and likely have never been tested, so those numbers aren't in the confirmed case numbers. Bold prediction - once the antibody tests start you'll be shocked by how many people in the US had it already and recovered and had no idea. And for every one of those cases the mortality rate declines.

60 million Americans got the swine flu. Worldwide, and in the US, only about 10% of people have contracted c19 so far.

[mcarter815]

Absolutely not true. Considering all of the silent carriers with no symptoms it looks like the mortality rate will be less than the flu. The mortality rate in the elderly and those with underlying conditions will be higher, which is why those people will have to be careful. Overall though, it is less deadly than the flu when it comes to the overall number of infected that die.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

Germany is one of the first to do a wide spread survey of the general population using antibody tests to determine how much of the population has contracted the disease. They tested 1,000 residents and found 2% had an active infection and 14% had antibodies showing that they were immune. From this study they were able to estimate a death rate of .37%.

The mortality rate for the flu is .1%. It's still a significant jump from the flu and the hospitalization rate has been enough to overload hospitals around the world.

[GEAR_HEAD]

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...wn-in-germany/

Germany is one of the first to do a wide spread survey of the general population using antibody tests to determine how much of the population has contracted the disease. They tested 1,000 residents and found 2% had an active infection and 14% had antibodies showing that they were immune. From this study they were able to estimate a death rate of .37%.

The mortality rate for the flu is .1%. It's still a significant jump from the flu and the hospitalization rate has been enough to overload hospitals around the world.

You just validated my point! .37% mortality rate is not worth shutting down the economy over. Glad you finally saw the light. Where did you get 6X as deadly? Yikes. My point was the healthy population going out is not going to overload the hospitals, so there's no risk of that unless they start doing something dumb like visiting nursing homes.

[mcarter815]

You just validated my point! .37% mortality rate is not worth shutting down the economy over. Glad you finally saw the light. Where did you get 6X as deadly? Yikes. My point was the healthy population going out is not going to overload the hospitals, so there's no risk of that unless they start doing something dumb like visiting nursing homes.

.37% is significant, especially with an R0 as high as it's currently estimated at. The mortality rate isn't everything, either. What's also important is the hospitalization rate.

[jr29]

You just validated my point! .37% mortality rate is not worth shutting down the economy over. Glad you finally saw the light. Where did you get 6X as deadly? Yikes. My point was the healthy population going out is not going to overload the hospitals, so there's no risk of that unless they start doing something dumb like visiting nursing homes.

So .37% isn't worth it but .6 is ?
At the beginning of this we didn't have any idea what it was because information coming out of China is not reliable. Arkansas senator Tom Cotton, who I do not like, tried to tell folks in the Trump administration to keep an eye on this thing from the beginning and he was blown off.

[GEAR_HEAD]

So .37% isn't worth it but .6 is ?
At the beginning of this we didn't have any idea what it was because information coming out of China is not reliable.

As I clearly stated before, .6 isn't worth it either.

[GEAR_HEAD]

.37% is significant, especially with an R0 as high as it's currently estimated at. The mortality rate isn't everything, either. What's also important is the hospitalization rate.

Sure, and the elderly and people with underlying conditions are the ones with the high hospitalization rate. So you're agreeing with everything I have said.

[jr29]

As I clearly stated before, .6 isn't worth it either.

What % would it take ?

[zach51]

So to clarify, probably no Dream? lol

Dang you guys are bored.

[GEAR_HEAD]

What % would it take ?

A much larger one.

[GEAR_HEAD]

So to clarify, probably no Dream? lol

I'm ready!

[mcarter815]

Sure, and the elderly and people with underlying conditions are the ones with the high hospitalization rate. So you're agreeing with everything I have said.

No, I'm not. We're coming to different conclusions.

[fryefan]

That's why we all have to go back to normal May 1 whether the government says we can or not. It is not the government's decision to make for us. There is little risk for healthy people without underlying conditions to go racing or to the bar or to the mall as long as the people susceptible to this keep socially distancing from those healthy people that may be carrying the virus unknowingly. The quicker the healthy people get the virus and become immune, the better.

You sound like donnie rump.

[fryefan]

Comparing this to a typical flu is a mistake. It's worse than a typical flu.

That is correct. It is much more contagious and deadly than the regular flu.