Ghost Of 1929 Re-Appears - Pay Attention To The Signals

[Bubstr]

Anyone that has been around for a while, knows there are business cycles. Do they repeat?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-07/ghost-1929-re-appears-pay-attention-signals

They say those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

As a student of market history, I’ve seen that maxim made true time and again. The cycle swings fear back to greed. The overcautious become the overzealous. And at the top, the story is always the same: Too much credit, too much speculation, the suspension of disbelief, and the spread of the idea that this time is different.

It doesn’t matter whether it was the expansion of railroads heading into the crash of 1893 or the excitement over the consolidation of the steel industry in 1901 or the mixing of speculation and banking heading into 1907. Or whether it involves an epic expansion of mortgage credit, IPO activity, or central-bank stimulus. What can’t continue forever ultimately won’t.

The weaknesses of the human heart and mind means the swings will always exist. Our rudimentary understanding of the forces of economics, which in turn, reflect ultimately reflect the fallacies of people making investing, purchasing, and saving decisions, means policymakers will never defeat the vagaries of the business cycle.

So no, this time isn’t different. The specifics may have changed, but the themes remain the same.

[racin6mod]

they got the gop to lower the capital gain tax which is 1/5th of the income for the top 1% who have 40% of the nations wealth. that is a major drive behind the blind greed that is driving wall street they got a bail out the last time and don't care about the risk.

[Bubstr]

they got the gop to lower the capital gain tax which is 1/5th of the income for the top 1% who have 40% of the nations wealth. that is a major drive behind the blind greed that is driving wall street they got a bail out the last time and don't care about the risk.

I'm a little confused. The capital gains tax has been at 15% for some time now. I may be wrong, but I believe it was lowered during the Bush Administration.

[TS FAN]

LOL on these brilliant deductions. Here is a news flash. Greed has been around forever. Liberals in charge only make the rich, richer.

[Bubstr]

LOL on these brilliant deductions. Here is a news flash. Greed has been around forever. Liberals in charge only make the rich, richer.

That is true enough. It is also true that when the conservatives are in power, they make the rich richer. We average people don't have anyone looking out for us. Until we remove all campaign contributions and conflict of interest rewards, we will always have this problem.

[DirtRacer2014]

That is true enough. It is also true that when the conservatives are in power, they make the rich richer. We average people don't have anyone looking out for us. Until we remove all campaign contributions and conflict of interest rewards, we will always have this problem.

In order to have a need for a democrat you need to have poor people ..the democrats need to keep there people suppressed and blame it on the man who is not afraid to work..they are the enemy. they have the money. So the Democrats need to keep there people poor or they would be Republicans and have no need for democrats.

[TS FAN]

That is true enough. It is also true that when the conservatives are in power, they make the rich richer. We average people don't have anyone looking out for us. Until we remove all campaign contributions and conflict of interest rewards, we will always have this problem.

I can agree with you except for one important fact. We have not had, at least in my life time a real conservative in office. Reagan was the closest. So the truth is, the gov has been either real liberal or sort of liberal and no one is looking out for the average man. This is true. But conservatism when it has been applied works. Kennedy used a little of it as did Reagan. But the truth is this. People will elect a far left liberal, we have one. I will have to see it before I believe they would ever elect a real conservative. Simply because of the media, the messaging is to hard to get out there when the media distorts it. If people understood it, a lot more would be for it. Especially minorities who want a fair shake at getting ahead in life.

[Bubstr]

In order to have a need for a democrat you need to have poor people ..the democrats need to keep there people suppressed and blame it on the man who is not afraid to work..they are the enemy. they have the money. So the Democrats need to keep there people poor or they would be Republicans and have no need for democrats.

There is something really wrong with your line of thought. Poor people are a bi product of unregulated capitalism. Both parties have been bought and made or removed legislation that results in so many unemployed. I don't care which side you let be bought and paid for, they still belong to the guy with the deepest pockets. Your singing their praises, are you the one with deep pockets? If it was me, I'd say hell yes, you peons can't afford representation.

[Bubstr]

I can agree with you except for one important fact. We have not had, at least in my life time a real conservative in office. Reagan was the closest. So the truth is, the gov has been either real liberal or sort of liberal and no one is looking out for the average man. This is true. But conservatism when it has been applied works. Kennedy used a little of it as did Reagan. But the truth is this. People will elect a far left liberal, we have one. I will have to see it before I believe they would ever elect a real conservative. Simply because of the media, the messaging is to hard to get out there when the media distorts it. If people understood it, a lot more would be for it. Especially minorities who want a fair shake at getting ahead in life.

Conserve- protect (something, esp. an environmentally or culturally important place or thing) from harm or destruction.

There have been no remotely conservative presidents in my lifetime and I go back to FDR. The republican party forgot what the word means. If Reagan knew what it ment, We wouldn't have NAFTA. We would still have the Sherman trust act. We would still have the Glass Stegal act. We would have kept the graduated tax brackets that made him the first president in 30 years to have to raise the debt ceiling. I have to use his words on the republican party, "they know so much that isn't true".

It's to the point, I wouldn't want a true conservative. I want change. Change it back to the way it was.

[15D]

There is something really wrong with your line of thought. Poor people are a bi product of unregulated capitalism. Both parties have been bought and made or removed legislation that results in so many unemployed. I don't care which side you let be bought and paid for, they still belong to the guy with the deepest pockets. Your singing their praises, are you the one with deep pockets? If it was me, I'd say hell yes, you peons can't afford representation.

Long before Capitalism there was poverty. They were called surfs in the feudal system. Capitalism is when a middle class starts to evolve and regular people have a shot to make it to the top. Granted few get there, maybe 20% here in the USA, but in the Feudal System your only chance was to be borne into it.


Capitalism has done more to increase the quality of life then any other means of an economy. If you desire to be a curmudgeon, yes you can find inequities. Most inequities are caused by governmental meddling in the market. This last meltdown in 2008 is a good example. The government decided that it was a good idea for millions of people to be able to purchase a home with no money down. When that started to go bad they found creative ways to legally allow the mortgage brokers to pawn off bad investments until it finally went bust.

One more thing when it comes to campaign financing; currently over 1/4 of our federal budget goes for Social Security. Add in the other various forms of Welfare, Medicare, and Medicaid and the total is over 50% of the budget. Seems to me that the people aren't getting the shaft as you like to espouse. From my point of view, we are far to generous, more people should be paying their own way.

[Bubstr]

Long before Capitalism there was poverty. They were called surfs in the feudal system. Capitalism is when a middle class starts to evolve and regular people have a shot to make it to the top. Granted few get there, maybe 20% here in the USA, but in the Feudal System your only chance was to be borne into it.

Feudalism was just another name foe unbridled capitalism. Manifest destiny lead by the European explorers was pure unbridled capitalism. East India company was unbridled capitalism.

20% is pie in the sky, as 1% holds 99% of the wealth. I know at least three people that own their own airplane and they would tell you, they too are being exploited. They just latch on to a few dollars as it goes threw their hands.

Capitalism has nothing to do with middle class evolution. The powerfull exploit the weak for profit. Under this system even the surfs found they had a shot and took it. The really did have power and killed the land barons and took the land back. The United States ran the British off and took the land. Even your middle class was established by unions and socialists stopping production and busting heads to get decent wages no child labor, decent working environment and working hours. The capitalists didn't give us them things. Yes we need Capitalism, but we need well regulated Capitalism. You need to read history, so we don't make the same mistakes over and over.

Capitalism has done more to increase the quality of life then any other means of an economy. If you desire to be a curmudgeon, yes you can find inequities. Most inequities are caused by governmental meddling in the market. This last meltdown in 2008 is a good example. The government decided that it was a good idea for millions of people to be able to purchase a home with no money down. When that started to go bad they found creative ways to legally allow the mortgage brokers to pawn off bad investments until it finally went bust.

We had Capitalism well before the industrial revolution. We had wide spread poverty well after the industrial revolution. Quality of life did not come till the advent of unions and regulations on capitalism.

Let's look at the housing bubble deal. The ground work was put in place for that many years prior. Most of it was deregulation, not restriction. Nullifying the Glass Steagal act was a biggie. This act made it illegal for a Commercial bank to trade in the stock market. (gamble your money or put your hose loan up as collateral to gamble). Then the SEC was lacks on enforcing disclosure and on naked short selling. Now you can blame it all you want on poor people getting loans they can't afford, but they did not force these loans, they just made it legal to make them. This was more deregulation. Take it a step farther, the reserve for these loans where lowered, (more deregulation). Now do you suppose the poor people that couldn't afford a house, paid the Congress to deregulate or was it the capitalist banks , who even after the crash and bailouts made money on the deal? HELLO ANYONE HOME?

One more thing when it comes to campaign financing; currently over 1/4 of our federal budget goes for Social Security. Add in the other various forms of Welfare, Medicare, and Medicaid and the total is over 50% of the budget. Seems to me that the people aren't getting the shaft as you like to espouse. From my point of view, we are far to generous, more people should be paying their own way.

Your saying SS is a entitlement? Your saying they never paid FICA contributions 15% of everything they made in life? Your saying SS people don't pay over $100 a month for Medicare? Your saying that a lot of SS recipients aren't still paying taxes even on their retirement money? Your saying all of the retired people didn't pay their own way? If your not saying that, it takes it down to 18%. If you want to talk about paying your own way, lets look at Defense spending at 31%, not including discessional spending that pays a lot of the tab on these wars and arming other countries wich would put it up around 40 to 45%. These funds are supposed to be for our security, but end up fighting useless wars to give some business a advantage or just to pad profits for defense contractors. Shouldn't they be paying their own way? Did you as a conservative know that the Constitution only provides for a unpaid Militia except for issue of one rifle and ammunition to every man 18 to 45 and establishment of the Navy to protect trade routs. We know times change, but what's interesting about this, is who pays the tab on this. That was spelled out also. It was a export tax on the very people that benefited from safe trade routes. With all this fighting about oil in the middle east, maybe the oil companies should be paying their own way.

I forgot to add to the deregulation list, the Sherman trust act, that would have prevented banks too big to fail.

[DirtRacer2014]

There is something really wrong with your line of thought. Poor people are a bi product of unregulated capitalism. Both parties have been bought and made or removed legislation that results in so many unemployed. I don't care which side you let be bought and paid for, they still belong to the guy with the deepest pockets. Your singing their praises, are you the one with deep pockets? If it was me, I'd say hell yes, you peons can't afford representation.

If there is something wrong with my line of thought there is something wrong with your line of thought also.You get on here and complain about Capitalism and and the conservatives and then say both parties are bought and paid for? How about complaining about the current administration just one time! The poor working class man is still poor it is the lazy parasites of this country that are making out under this administration. The do nothing get paid people. you don't make poor people rich by making rich people poor. If you gave every person in the USA a million Dollars each. By the end of the 1st year the poor would be poor again and the rich would be rich again and the middle class would be the middle class again. it is just the way life is. If you don't like it get off your butt and do something to better yourself don't complain that there is nobody to look out for you. Put your big boy pants on and look out for your self. A lot like Anthony Cacase i came from a broken family with not much to call mine i didn't sit on my a$$ and complain i went out and made something of my self and now that i have i would like to keep what I EARNED! and i hope you take what i wrote with all do respect Bubstr. Under this administration the Middle class is now poor and the freeloader's are living off the middle class. Obama's net worth is 15 x what it was before he took office. so Make sure you call him out on that.

[Bubstr]

If there is something wrong with my line of thought there is something wrong with your line of thought also.You get on here and complain about Capitalism and and the conservatives and then say both parties are bought and paid for? How about complaining about the current administration just one time! The poor working class man is still poor it is the lazy parasites of this country that are making out under this administration. The do nothing get paid people. you don't make poor people rich by making rich people poor. If you gave every person in the USA a million Dollars each. By the end of the 1st year the poor would be poor again and the rich would be rich again and the middle class would be the middle class again. it is just the way life is. If you don't like it get off your butt and do something to better yourself don't complain that there is nobody to look out for you. Put your big boy pants on and look out for your self. A lot like Anthony Cacase i came from a broken family with not much to call mine i didn't sit on my a$$ and complain i went out and made something of my self and now that i have i would like to keep what I EARNED! and i hope you take what i wrote with all do respect Bubstr. Under this administration the Middle class is now poor and the freeloader's are living off the middle class. Obama's net worth is 15 x what it was before he took office. so Make sure you call him out on that.

I attack the republican party because some on here want to stand up for them. They just don't believe they are as bad as the other side. Back when Bush was president, the democrats felt the same way. I guess it's easy to get blinders and blame everything on the party in charge. It worked for the democrats, it may work for the republicans, but it won't change the fact that neither of them really represents you.

You would like to keep what you earned? The elite want to keep what you earned also. They have the means to do this, you don't. They can make money out of nothing. They can buy the government. You work for an existence more or less. You owe tax on everything you have, more or less. You owe interest on most of the things you buy and if you don't the person you bought them from does and it's included in the price. If you stopped working and spending, you would still pay from 1 to 5% tax on anything you kept, just by way of inflation. Sure the elite throw you some crumbs. Some don't get them crumbs, so the elite has you to throw them crumbs. Just enough crumbs to keep the serfs from cutting off the head of the land baron.

The worse part is, they have more money than there is goods to buy and still view us as worthless eaters. Until we see them as the worthless hoarders they are, nothing will change. The average person in this country will have made 2 to 5 million dollars and go out with barely the clothes on his back. Who got the rest of his labor? I might leave a little something for my kids, but it's not hoarding cash, it's spending cash. If your doing well, be thankful, but don't attribute it to the republicans or democrats.

[Clayton_Wetter]

If there is something wrong with my line of thought there is something wrong with your line of thought also.You get on here and complain about Capitalism and and the conservatives and then say both parties are bought and paid for? How about complaining about the current administration just one time! The poor working class man is still poor it is the lazy parasites of this country that are making out under this administration. The do nothing get paid people. you don't make poor people rich by making rich people poor. If you gave every person in the USA a million Dollars each. By the end of the 1st year the poor would be poor again and the rich would be rich again and the middle class would be the middle class again. it is just the way life is. If you don't like it get off your butt and do something to better yourself don't complain that there is nobody to look out for you. Put your big boy pants on and look out for your self. A lot like Anthony Cacase i came from a broken family with not much to call mine i didn't sit on my a$$ and complain i went out and made something of my self and now that i have i would like to keep what I EARNED! and i hope you take what i wrote with all do respect Bubstr. Under this administration the Middle class is now poor and the freeloader's are living off the middle class. Obama's net worth is 15 x what it was before he took office. so Make sure you call him out on that.

Way to go, I have not had time to be on here much lately, so thank you for defending Capitalism against our Socialist defending union man (lol) on here. And it is time for him to start mentioning the Obama Admin instead of simply saying everything is bought and paid for. Some of these people should move to Europe, Africa, or Asia and see how much better it is over there!!

[Clayton_Wetter]

I attack the republican party because some on here want to stand up for them. They just don't believe they are as bad as the other side. Back when Bush was president, the democrats felt the same way. I guess it's easy to get blinders and blame everything on the party in charge. It worked for the democrats, it may work for the republicans, but it won't change the fact that neither of them really represents you.

You would like to keep what you earned? The elite want to keep what you earned also. They have the means to do this, you don't. They can make money out of nothing. They can buy the government. You work for an existence more or less. You owe tax on everything you have, more or less. You owe interest on most of the things you buy and if you don't the person you bought them from does and it's included in the price. If you stopped working and spending, you would still pay from 1 to 5% tax on anything you kept, just by way of inflation. Sure the elite throw you some crumbs. Some don't get them crumbs, so the elite has you to throw them crumbs. Just enough crumbs to keep the serfs from cutting off the head of the land baron.

The worse part is, they have more money than there is goods to buy and still view us as worthless eaters. Until we see them as the worthless hoarders they are, nothing will change. The average person in this country will have made 2 to 5 million dollars and go out with barely the clothes on his back. Who got the rest of his labor? I might leave a little something for my kids, but it's not hoarding cash, it's spending cash. If your doing well, be thankful, but don't attribute it to the republicans or democrats.

You are totally blind if you think Republicans are just as bad as the Democrats. The Dem party is a vast majority of Progressive Socialists. The Republican GOP is not nearly as radical, and the conservative faction does have the best interest in saving the nation from a total government takeover and collapse of the economy and freedoms of the people. But no, you will not buy that will you?

You have it all covered though by blaming them all. Right?